Ruminations of an Expatriate

Last July 28 I posted a report of my conversation with Juan Daniel and his predictions of what was in store for Cuba. Here is an excerpt:

Juan Daniel indicated his belief that the elections coming in October will be very important for the future of change in Cuba and that he thinks Raul will be elected as president by the National Assembly. He also indicated that Raul will likely oversee great changes here during the next four or five years when another, younger president will likely be elected.

I have just read a report at the Miami Herald web site that:
The Cuban government plans to ease restrictions on travel abroad, eliminating for most Cubans the requirement that they obtain “exit permits” and an “invitations from abroad,” the Spanish daily El Pais reported Friday.

The newspaper’s correspondent in Havana quoted “sources close to the government” as saying that the announcement is planned for the next several days or weeks.

This follows announcements in recent weeks that limitations of ownership of cellular phone and certain electrical appliances are to be lifted. The Cuban government has explained that the cellular telephone system and electrical generations, transmission, and distribution systems have been developed to the point that they can handled the additional loads.

You may remember that after the demise of the Soviet Union, and its subsidization of the Cuban economy, the Cuban government instituted reforms which permitted foreign enterprise ownership of up to 49%, of Cuban enterprises, which, almost without exception, are under state ownership. Consequently, companies from Canada, Spain, Italy, China, and other nations have taken ownership positions in the Cuban state telecommunications, electrical, nickel mining, oil exploitation, and other enterprises. The result has been great improvements in the telecommunications and electrical systems and in the economy in general.

It seems that Juan Daniel was right on the money. President Raul Castro is ushering in changes. It will be interesting to see what develops in the coming months, both relative to Cuban government reforms and to USA Cuban policy. Though, given the historical USA government policy prohibiting USA trade with Cuba, economic opportunities for participation in the Cuban economy have largely passed by USA enterprises.

Obama has expressed his desire for an end to the trade and travel restrictions, while Clinton has expressed her support for the status quo. I think because Clinton is running the traditional DLC type campaign which relies upon winning Florida, while Obama is pursuing a Howard Dean type “fifty state” approach, in which winning Florida is not crucial.

I believe that Cuba can institute economic changes which take advantage of capitalist incentives and the intelligence and innovativeness of the Cuban people, by allowing more private businesses and cooperative ownership than it now does, to advance the Cuban economy and the standard of living of the Cuban people, while maintaining the excellent publicly supported Cuban educational and health care systems.

We’ll see what develops.

In related news, the  San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the last of Havans’s  “camello” (camel, so named for the two humps) buses will make their last runs on Sunday.  The buses are being replaced by modern buses manufactured in China.